Paris Masters: Alcaraz Overcomes Set-1 'Rhythm-Lag' to Send a Message Before the Berrettini Test

When Carlos Alcaraz found himself trailing 1-4 in the first-set tiebreak at the indoor hard courts of Paris, a hush fell over the crowd. It wasn't just about being behind in a tiebreak; it was the struggle of a player searching for his rhythm. The scoreboard reads 7-6(4), 6-3, but the scoreline doesn't tell you how close that first set really was. Watching the match, it was clear this wasn't a form problem but an adaptation process — what I call a 'rhythm-lag'.

This was the Round of 32 at the Paris Masters, the final Masters 1000 of the season. Alcaraz faced Alex Michelsen — a player who hits flat, stable baseline shots and whose main weapon is denying his opponent any rhythm. In the first set, Alcaraz was making numerous unforced errors, his shot timing was off. He did break in the fifth game but immediately lost his own serve. This signaled that on indoor hard courts — with their speed and low bounce — his bat-speed wasn't yet calibrated.

The real technical turning point came in the tiebreak, when Alcaraz won six consecutive points from 1-4 down to take the set. This wasn't just a comeback; it was a display of his forehand's power. When your opponent tries to trap you in long rallies to break your rhythm, the most effective weapon is a powerful forehand — one that sends the ball with such pace that the opponent cannot redirect it. In the second set, Alcaraz showed clear improvement in his service games. This was an internal self-correction, suggesting his team identified the error profile from the first set and worked on it immediately.

But a big question arises here — was this win as easy as the scoreline suggests? No. Coming back from 1-4 down in a tiebreak means the match could have gone to three sets. If Michelsen had won even two of those six points, the story would be different. This is why I value the 'process data' from the first set over the final scoreline. Alcaraz's biggest question this season is this: he has a brilliant 39-5 record, four titles, a six-match winning streak, and an 11-0 record in opening matches. These numbers show he isn't just a talented player but part of a system that prepares him from the very first match of every tournament.

One fact is worth remembering here: World No. 3 Alcaraz has never won the Paris Masters. His best result was a quarterfinal in 2026. This isn't a coincidence. Three consecutive tournaments at season's end — Vienna (500), Paris (1000), and then Turin for the ATP Finals — is a workload that takes a toll on both body and mind. The strategy Alcaraz's team adopted by winning Vienna is clear — maintaining match rhythm and accumulating titles. But the question is whether this strategy makes his path to the Paris title easier or harder. With six top seeds (Zverev, Medvedev, Tsitsipas, de Minaur, Djokovic, Tiafoe) exiting in the second round, the draw has opened up considerably. Only three top-10 seeds remain — Alcaraz, Shelton, and Fils. This is a tailwind for Alcaraz, but it's also true that this tailwind is a result of his rivals' exits, not his own performance.

Now his next match is against Matteo Berrettini, a completely different kind of challenge. Berrettini's big serve and powerful forehand, plus his slice backhand, means fewer rallies and more short points. Their head-to-head is 3-1 in Alcaraz's favor, but the sample size is small and surface isn't specified. Like Michelsen, Berrettini won't let you build rhythm, but his serve will give you less time. If Alcaraz repeats the error profile from the first set, the risk of losing a set is real.

This match made one more thing clear — the seed exodus in Paris isn't just a coincidence. When it's the last Masters of the season and the Finals follow immediately, players' priorities shift. Some are dealing with injuries, some are saving themselves for Turin. This is a concern for the tournament — from broadcasters to fans, everyone's attention is fixed on a handful of stars like Alcaraz. If he goes out too, the Paris Masters' luster will dim considerably.

Watching this match, I was wondering whether Alcaraz's team is treating Paris as a 'competitive tune-up' for Turin or genuinely going all-out for the title. At 23, with a 39-5 record, he's at the threshold of his statistical peak. But his record in Paris suggests this tournament has been something of a 'curse' for him so far. Will the open draw and the win over Michelsen finally break that curse? For me, the real answer will come in the first set against Berrettini.

If Alcaraz repeats the first-set error profile, losing a set against a big server like Berrettini won't be a surprise. And if he doesn't, the Paris title won't just be a trophy for him — it will be a psychological edge before Turin. The question isn't whether Alcaraz can win — it's whether he can change his biggest weakness in Paris: the slow start.